x402GAL · water estimate

x402GAL Water Intensity Methodology

2026-09 edition · sha256:7f27acc35d4e67bd50b60e894c30c51932d2318c6bc20ca8f38413d03122b6f0

How x402GAL estimates the water footprint of AI usage, with every coefficient published.

This is a modeled estimate from published coefficients, not a measurement.

The estimate covers water used at the data center only, and does not include water used to generate the electricity, which can be several times larger.

What a public tier uses

The text-only estimate maps each public tier onto a published energy row and a published facility water rate. It does not add a new coefficient.

Public tierEnergy rowFacility water row
frontiergpt4_classhyperscaler
localsmall_openunknown
own_agentsunknownunknown

The own_agents tier uses unknown rows on both axes, so its band is the widest, and it will narrow as published coefficients for agentic workloads appear.

frontier uses gpt4_class and the hyperscaler facility water rate (0.2 L/kWh). local uses small_open and the unknown facility water rate (0.45 L/kWh). own_agents uses the unknown energy row and the unknown facility water rate.

Usage rows

Each usage answer picks a token row. Where you are based does not change the estimate. It only sets which city the map opens on.

Text use per dayTokens inTokens out
A few prompts2,0004,000
Steadily through the day10,00020,000
It runs my workflow40,00080,000
I run agents or automations200,000400,000
Images or videoItems per dayIT energy per item
Rarely0.50.003 kWh
Sometimes50.003 kWh
Regularly250.003 kWh

The text and media estimate adds image and video energy from the table above. The text-only estimate does not. The two results can differ.

A frontier model on a hyperscaler uses 0.6x to 1.6x. Every other published pairing uses 0.3x to 3x.

The text and media estimate rounds the center to 1 significant figure. The text-only estimate shows the range as well as that center.

Estimates from your own token counts

The same formula and the same coefficients apply when an assistant passes token counts from a usage record. The result is only as accurate as the counts supplied.

The tier describes the model and where it runs, not whether the user runs agents. Hosted models from OpenAI (GPT), Anthropic (Claude), Google (Gemini), xAI (Grok), Meta (Muse Spark), Microsoft (MAI) and Amazon (Nova) are frontier, including through coding agents like Claude Code or Cursor. Open-weight models (Llama, Gemma, Phi, Nemotron, DeepSeek, Qwen, Kimi, Mistral) are frontier when used through a hosted API and local when run on the user's own hardware. own_agents is only for an unknown model on unknown infrastructure.

Count cache creation tokens, also called cache writes, in the input tokens. Cached reads are excluded because there is no published coefficient for them.

Include reasoning or thinking tokens in the output tokens. Providers bill them as output, and they can be a large share of agent usage.

Adding the low end of each entry and adding the high end is a conservative combined range. It is wider than a statistical range.

The model

Based on The Green Grid's WUE metric.

W_site = WUE × [(T_in/1000)*e_in + (T_out/1000)*e_out + e_overhead] × F_boundary

WUE is water-use effectiveness in liters per kWh of IT energy. e_in and e_out are kWh per thousand input and output tokens. e_overhead is fixed energy, used by the text and media estimate for images and video. F_boundary is 1.0 when energy is already at the IT boundary.

Model tiere_in (kWh / 1K tokens)e_out (kWh / 1K tokens)
gpt4_class0.00020.0006
small_open0.00010.0003
unknown0.00030.001
Facility water rowWUE (L / kWh)
hyperscaler0.2
unknown0.45
ModeMultiplierMeaning
facility1Water used at the data center. This is what the text-only estimate and the text and media estimate return.
source4Adds water used to generate the electricity. Not included in the text-only estimate or the text and media estimate.
lifecycle8Adds hardware manufacturing. Informational only. Not included in either estimate.

The hashed 2026-09 data calls this mode 'site.' The next edition will use 'facility.'

Where the defaults come from

Each published coefficient is listed with the source that states that number. A row with no direct source is an x402GAL assumption.

CoefficientPublished valueSource
gpt4_class e_out0.0006 kWh / 1K tokensEpoch AI GPT-4o estimate, about 0.0006 kWh per 1K output tokens.
gpt4_class e_in0.0002 kWh / 1K tokensx402GAL assumption.
small_open e_in0.0001 kWh / 1K tokensx402GAL assumption.
small_open e_out0.0003 kWh / 1K tokensx402GAL assumption.
unknown e_in0.0003 kWh / 1K tokensx402GAL assumption.
unknown e_out0.001 kWh / 1K tokensx402GAL assumption.
hyperscaler facility water rate0.2 L/kWhx402GAL assumption, set within the 0.15 to 0.27 L/kWh range reported for 2024 and FY25: AWS 0.15 (2024 Sustainability Report), Meta 0.19 (2024, per the 2025 Environmental Data Index), Microsoft 0.27 (FY25).
unknown facility water rate0.45 L/kWhx402GAL assumption, set above LBNL's hyperscale median of 0.32 L/kWh, because a site of unknown type is assumed to be less efficient than a hyperscaler.
facility mode multiplier1Defines the facility boundary. The hashed 2026-09 data calls this mode 'site.' The next edition will use 'facility.'
source mode multiplier4x402GAL assumption. No published basis yet.
lifecycle mode multiplier8x402GAL assumption. No published basis yet.
frontier on a hyperscaler band0.6x to 1.6xx402GAL assumption.
every other published pairing band0.3x to 3xx402GAL assumption.
text use token rowsUsage rows tablex402GAL assumption.
images or video rows0.003 kWh per itemx402GAL assumption.
F_boundary1.0 when energy is already IT energyx402GAL assumption. Green Grid WUE is defined on IT energy.

The hashed reference list also includes the LBNL 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. The model notes also name TokenPowerBench and IEEE Access Pythia measurements. They are not tied to a row above.

Checking the hash

The hash is SHA-256 of the exact string below: the specification line, the formula, the references, and the three default tables, in that key order. Change any coefficient and the hash changes.

{"spec":"Green Grid WUE v1, boundary-aware split","formula":"W_site = WUE × [(T_in/1000)*e_in + (T_out/1000)*e_out + e_overhead] × F_boundary","refs":["https://www.thegreengrid.org/system/files/store/WUE_v1.pdf","https://eta-publications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2024-12/lbnl-2024-united-states-data-center-energy-usage-report_1.pdf","https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/how-much-energy-does-chatgpt-use"],"MODEL_DEFAULTS":{"gpt4_class":{"e_in":0.0002,"e_out":0.0006},"small_open":{"e_in":0.0001,"e_out":0.0003},"unknown":{"e_in":0.0003,"e_out":0.001}},"WUE_DEFAULTS":{"hyperscaler":0.2,"unknown":0.45},"MODE_MULT":{"site":1,"source":4,"lifecycle":8}}

Expected hash: 7f27acc35d4e67bd50b60e894c30c51932d2318c6bc20ca8f38413d03122b6f0

What this is not

It is not a single liters-per-token figure. It does not reduce, replace, or balance any water use. A pledge link is an intention. Verified replenishment is not yet live.

Estimates only. Nothing here is a measurement, an offer, or a water right.

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